How do line movements affect sports bettors?

Have you ever placed a bet and then minutes later the line moved up by a point, leaving you with an uneasy feeling that you just made a losing wager?  To many sports bettors, deciphering the meaning of line movements has been a long time mystery.  Sports betting is as much a mental game as the analytical and situational side side of handicapping a game.  Sports books have been known to take full advantage of this phenomenon to gain an edge over players beyond the standard house vig.  Line movements play a key role in confusing the sports bettor, causing them to doubt themselves and sometimes put in a wager that contradicts hours of handicapping solely because of the direction and how much a line moves prior to a game starting.  How do you soar above these mental tricks that the books use?  Sure, sometimes lines move because of heavy insider “sharp” money on a side, or sometimes they move because the public unexpectedly jumps on a side the books did not expect and they need to even out the action.  But, that is not always the case.  How can you remain confident that even when the line has moved against you that your wager is still a profitable opportunity?  How do you stay strong in the wake of an obvious public choice that fits your winning system even though the line keeps dropping?

We’ve developed a way to answer these questions for you with the newest addition to Intellibet.  Line movement trends look at your picks in relation to how the line moved prior to a game starting.  For example, let’s say you’ve been tracking a pro football home underdog system with Intellibet for the past 2 seasons and it wins at a rate of 51.3%, basically an even proposition.  The new line movement analysis part of Intellibet may search the line movement history of each of those picks and let you know that when the closing line (15 minutes prior to the game starting) was higher than the opening line by 1 or more points that the system hits at 60.9%, almost a 10% increase from your raw system data and surely profitable!  So, when the line for your current home underdog pick that starts in 15 minutes has moved up by 1.5 points, you are alerted and can bet with confidence that even though the line is moving against you, you are still on the right side.

Confidence breeds success.  That’s why we built Intellibet, to build a backbone behind your wagers strong enough to take on the mental, situational and analytical sides to sports betting, leaving you profitable and successful at the game you love most.


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Premier League Recap – 2/12/13

Going into the weekend this looked like the perfect opportunity for second place City to potentially gain ground on first place Manchester United, who began the weekend holding a nine point advantage in the standings.  United were staring down a tough home test against David Moyes and Everton, with a matchup midweek against Real Madrid in the Champions League on the horizon.  United manager Alex Ferguson had even said he planned to sit some of his regular starters so they would be fully rested for Madrid.

Meanwhile, City had just welcomed back one of their top players, Yaya Toure, from international duty at the African Cup of Nations and their opponent, Southampton, had been floundering near the bottom of the table all year long since earning promotion last year and had even recently undergone a managerial change as Nigel Adkins was axed in favor of Mauricio Pochettino, much to the chagrin of many Southampton supporters.

All of this seemed to matter little by the end of the day Saturday as Southampton jumped out to an early lead.  To everyone’s surprise they then extended the lead shortly thereafter when usually sure handed goalie Joe Hart let what looked like an easy save slip through the five hole, and City defenders were late to close down Steven Davis who tapped in for a 2-0 lead.  Eden Dzeko was able to get one back for City before halftime, but a Gareth Barry own goal just after the beginning of the second half turned out to be too much for City to overcome.

The victory for Southampton puts them four points clear of the relegation zone, but more importantly looks to have all but have sealed the Premier League title for United as they now stand twelve points clear of City.  It also revealed, somewhat surprisingly, the many problems they face as a team, including a lack of depth in almost every area of their roster and the stark reality that every acquisition they made this past summer has not lived up to expectations.

This also looks to be the end of Roberto Mancini’s run as the head man at City.  After crashing out of the Champions League in extremely poor fashion for the second year in a row, a repeat of their Premier League title looked to be the only thing that would save his job come the end of May. Now it looks as though he is beginning to lose control of his team and that will almost certainly mean the end of his time at City.  They will need to try and right the ship quickly to avoid a collapse of epic proportions as the teams behind them in the standings don’t show any signs of letting up.

Chelsea got back on track at home against Wigan with a 4-1 victory.  The game was still within Wigan’s reach until the 86th minute when Frank Lampard calmly and cooly slotted home to ensure all three points for the Blues.  With the win Chelsea ended a run of four straight losses in all competitions and moved within four points of second place City.

More importantly, they stayed one point ahead of fourth place Tottenham, who secured a 2-1 win over Newcastle at White Hart Lane.  Gareth Bale scored twice for Spurs and their defense was able to hold the Newcastle French Revolution to only one goal.  Bale has been the center of constant rumors about a possible transfer in the upcoming summer window.  Spurs would be wise to throw the entire check book at him as he is the main reason they have been able to hold their place in the top four since the beginning of the New Year.  Without him they would be middle of the table, and by locking him down they would ensure their success for the foreseeable future.

Arsenal got a 35th minute goal from Santi Cazorla and then showed Manager Arsene Wengers words that they are “in the fight and ready to fight” to be true as they overcame a Carl Jenkinson red card in the 62nd minute to hold on with ten men and beat Sunderland on the road.

On Sunday Manchester United beat Everton 2-0 behind goals from Ryan Giggs and Robin Van Persie, severely denting Evertons hopes of finishing in the top four.  The 39 year old Giggs continues to inspire with his leadership and remarkable service.  Along with Frank Lampard they continue to show the Premier League that age is of little importance.  As I mentioned above United are now twelve points clear in first place and will be very difficult for any team to catch at this point in the season.

Monday brought about another surprise result that few people would have predicted before the weekend.  Liverpool looked like they were finally starting to gel as a team within Brendan Rodgers system.  Coming off of solid back to back performances in earning draws on the road at Arsenal and Manchester City, they continued their solid form against West Brom as they peppered the goal with shot after shot, holding a 25-5 advantage by games end.  It was all for naught though as it was West Brom who finally broke through in the 81st minute with a goal from Gareth McAuley. They then sealed the win in injury time with a goal from Romelu Lukaku.  One of the biggest surprise teams of the first half of the season, West Brom continues to hold their place in the top half of the group while Liverpool just can’t seem to get over the hump.

The Premier League takes a break this weekend as the FA Cup resumes play throughout England.  There will be lots to talk about until the league gets back underway a week from Saturday.  With United now twelve points clear of second place City, the majority of attention will now turn to who will finish in the final three available Champions League spots.  There are eight teams who have a legitimate shot at cracking the top four by seasons end and I don’t see us lacking any drama as we finish up the last eleven games of the season.

(contributed by Matthew Carroll @ William Murphy Investing)

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How I Use Intellibet to Determine My Weekly Football Betting Strategy and Power Plays

by Matt Kendelski, Founder and CEO of The Pick Exchange

It’s been 4+ seasons now that I’ve been tracking my college and NFL football picks on a weekly basis at The Pick Exchange.  Ever since Intellibet was developed and launched, I’ve  used the software to gain a keen insight into which of my picks to bet and which to lay off.

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Time for a Gamble: Plaxico, Terrell Owens or Chad Johnson?

After seven weeks, we are starting to see teams make some separation in their respective divisions. We know the sure-fire playoff teams, the contenders, and the bums.

The contending teams all have work to do to ensure themselves postseason spots. Whether that work can be done by improving internally through practice, coaching and discipline remains to be seen.

Some teams employ the “make a splash”, or “shake things up” mid-season strategy, which has its pitfalls but also has been known to help teams make a strong push.

Today, we are going to focus on the teams that need help at wide receiver and that would be interested at taking a look at one of the baggage-carrying wide-outs mentioned in the headline.

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The Game to Pick During the NFL’s Most Common Bye Week

If you play fantasy football, this week you are undoubtedly dealing with some of your players having bye weeks, as six teams of 32 NFL teams take a break. For those of us that bet on games, there are less choices available, making it more likely that we’ll pick a loser.

With six weeks in the books, this is the perfect time to analyze how you’ve bet during the 2012 season; what’s worked, what hasn’t and are your betting habits trending in one direction or another (which you can analyze using Intellibet)?

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Peyton Manning: The 2nd Best QB in the NFL

Though the headline doesn’t reflect my opinion, it does mirror what the NFL QB rating system has calculated. Aaron Rodgers is No. 1, RGIII is fittingly No. 3 and Peyton is sandwiched in the middle. Would you have guessed that?

In an earlier post, I made light of Manning’s weak arm strength, referring to his throws as “floating ducks”, or something to that effect. Last night during the game, personality Jim Rome tweeted the below (at a point when the Broncos were getting hammered).

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Michael Vick: Caring About Dogs and Ball Security in a Post Incarcerated World

Michael Vick was the first pick of the Atlanta Faclons in the 2001 NFL Draft.  He led the Falcons to the playoffs twice and was elected to the Pro Bowl three times. Then he went to jail. I imagine the contrast between Hawaii and a cell block to be stark.

It takes a lot to actually forget someone went to jail, but with Vick having fumbled the ball so much during the 2012 season, it may have came to that…until pictures were released of Milk Bones on his kitchen table. The blogosphere erupted upon witnessing the box of dog treats, claiming the former dog fighter couldn’t be capable of raising and legitimately caring about the life of a dog.

As tough as this may be to believe, in Michael Vick’s mind, his fighting dogs for sport had nothing to do with him caring about dogs. One type was a pet, and one was a warrior meant to prove superiority over another trainer/owner. There was a separation.

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The Psychology of Playing Underdogs in Prime Time Spots

It’s well noted that the prime time Sunday and Monday night football games draw more betting action then the Sunday afternoon games. This is due to the games being nationally televised (free broadcast for the Sunday night game), being the only football games on at their given time slots and offering bettors a chance to chase their losses after a tough week of games.

Why is this a big deal? I would say for two reasons:

1) A larger majority of “dumb” money is entering the books for these games

2) The loss chasers mentioned above tend to be “safer” players

The amount of coverage and analysis afforded these two games is unlike any other match-up for the week. A regular Joe Schmo can feel empowered enough from watching Chris Berman spit through two minutes of “woop-woop-woop” to think he knows enough to get some skin in the game.

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NFL Week 5: Betting Off Key Numbers

This week’s slate of games presents a challenge to the NFL bettor in that there are at least five games that are capped at one of the “key numbers”. Key numbers represent the most likely margins of victory (three, seven, 10 etc.). Looking at this piece from betting pro Jimmy Boyd, it is the number three that decides victory almost 16% of the time, almost double the next number (seven).

This might seem like something you need to know for Super Bowl’s favorite betting past time “Squares”, but it is even more important for the aspiring sharp bettors out there. Many books allow their bettors to “buy the hook”, or a half point either way. Boyd’s previously referenced piece shows that buying off the number three is profitable as long as you can score the half point at $.20 or less (on a dollar bet).

How often do games end up hitting the three? Check this table below, courtesy of jumperjack on the forum.

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What Happens if it’s Really Tebow Time?

The Jets and their flamboyant head coach Rex Ryan played the press this off-season (and every other off-season Ryan has been apart of) to drum up a significant amount of publicity for their 2012 campaign. The spotlight is still on them due to a spotty 2-2 record and a once media pressured quarterback controversy actually materializing.

Mark Sanchez, the Jets quarterback through the team’s first four games has a sub 50% completion percentage on the season. The only signal callers he has a higher QB rating than are rookies Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden. With Skip Bayless, Florida Gator alums, uninformed football fans and a lot of born again Christians all clamoring for Tim Tebow’s Jets reign to begin, the heat will be on Sanchez full bore to produce, regardless of any Rex Ryan vote of confidence.

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